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Saturday, January 29, 2011

Power Ratings II

New-fangled ultra sophista-ma-cated coolio Power Rankings.

As I wrote before, the previous PR took your winning % and adjusted it by comparing it to the number of times your teammates were favorites or dogs, thus comparing your win% to the average win% of someone who played with your exact schedule of games.  So guys who played on better than avg teams win% was adjusted down, and visa versa.

Now, I have gone further and not just looked at if you were favs or dogs, but by how much you were favs or dogs.  If your team was average, playing a team with four 55% winners would be a lot easier than one with four 65% winners and you would be expected to win that a little more often.  So I compared every game - who your teammates and opponents were, and how much the avg player would be expected to win or lose in that situation and compared it to your wins.

Then, I had to go a little further...  Since you influence the outcomes of the games you are in (for the better or the worse), I had to look at your opponents and teammates stats in the games where you weren't a participant.  Because some of the reason that it looks like Anthony had an easy schedule is because the guys who play against him lose a lot and that is a subset of their total stats.  So I had to see how they did in games he wasn't in to compare.

Anyway, no one really cares about the math, so here are the new Power Rankings...


AdjSOS = Adjusted Strength of Schedule.  The measure of how good or bad your average teammates and opponents have been.  Positive numbers mean that your schedule has been easier than average, negative numbers mean it has been more difficult than average.  Keep in mind, this is already factored into the Power Ranking, I just put it here for reference.  So if it seems that you are always on crappy teams, now you know for sure.  Tony & Keith have had the worst luck, Mike & Anthony the best.  Again, this stat does NOT include your own numbers, so Ant & Mike don't have a favorable schedule because of their own individual win% - it's strictly based on who their teammates and opponents were, but you can probably guess that they have played together (and with Marc) quite a few times.

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