Watching the NBA

I watch 2 to 3 games a day of NBA action. Thank you TIVO and NBA League Pass. So, because no one asked, here is my list of the most compelling teams for me to watch ranked by who I would watch first if all teams were on at the same time. Go Suns.

93 Dudes & 2 Dudettes

Today the first girl since I've been tracking other than Marvena showed up to play. Her name was Tenley and she was young and small - you have to admire her gumption to come and lace 'em up at noon hoops. In all, 95 different players have played in the 2 months I've been tracking. In that time, 13 of the 95 have played more than half the time and only 24 of the 95 have played at least 25% of the time. I've now recorded 310 games and tallied the game-winning shot in 124 of them. Here're the all-time attendees and how often they have come...







There were 28 of us on Wednesday. I got the results from 20 games and missed a few. Here are the results... Erik, James and TK played together much of the day and had a lot of wins...





Here's the cumulative w/l for guys with at least 20 games played...James is still more than 10% ahead of 2nd place. However, at one point he was 30-6 and has gone 15-6 since then. On another note, clearly, being named "Dane" hasn't helped so far.



Here are everyone's stats... Hey, it is T-Giving after all... The two columns on the right used to be their own chart. They are your personal longest winning and losing streaks since I've been keeping track. So, for instance, my "5" in the next to last column means that the most games I've won in a row is 5 and my "9" in the last column means that at one point I had lost 9 in a row. Awesome for me.



Here's the game-winning shot tally/chart. Again, the columns are player, # of GWS, games played in which I recorded the GWS, % of time you hit the GWS in one of those games, wins you played in where I recorded the GWS and finally the % of time you hit the GWS in one of those wins... This is explained a little more carefully in the first GWS post...



No hoops on Friday, bummer.

Happy Tofurky Day

That's right, Tofurky Day. Yum. Vegans rule. Hey, maybe if more of the hoopsters were vegan, we could play until 3:00 or 3:30 without all that pesky cholesterol slowing everyone down.

On another note, lots of good games today, I should have the results posted by morning.

Favorites Win (duh!)

Today the favorites were 10-0 vs the underdogs. I determine the favs and underdogs by adding the winning % of the 4 players on each team. If you have less than 20 games played, I use 50% for you so you don't corrupt the stats.

So, for instance, in the first game it was Bob (47%), Luke (62), Steve (60) and Zach (42) for a total of 212 vs Gary (41), Jack (48), Rob (pony tail) (42) and Sean #2 (new, so 50) for a total of 181. That 31% diff is pretty big in my database. Favs that have at least a 40% advantage are historically 51-8. Favs that have a 30-40% advantage are 27-6. Sure enough, we won.

Here's the chart for favorites and their records based on how big the winning % diff was between the two teams... Overall, you can see that the favs win 67% of the time.

Of course, not all the data is "clean" or random. There are several guys who affect their winning % by what they do at hoops to help get on winning teams. Some of the things guys do are...

1. Sign up for team 2 when team 1 isn't full 'cause they don't like team 1's chances.

2. Sit out a game rather than shoot for it when they think the team they'd join is weak.

3. Bring a friend who is talented and play with them all day.

4. Try to replace a player who is leaving with the best guy sitting as opposed to having the remaining dudes shoot for it.

There are a few guys who do this stuff a bunch - though most guys don't and therefore their teammates are truly random. Clearly, the guys who do help their chances of winning, but overall, it's still pretty minor.

Here are today's stats...

And here are the cumulative stats for everyone with more than 40 games played. I've now got data on 290 games...

Rob (pony tail) jackknifed his ankle today, hope it's feeling better soon.

Crazy Friday Again & "To Steve-Out"

The picture above is what the board looked like before the first game even started today. There were people everywhere - it looked like an AAU tryout camp. As a matter of fact, at 11:50 there were already four full teams signed up. As a result, of course, I missed many games in recording today's results. But I should have that problem solved from now on as I'm now going to bring sheets that are easy to fill out for guys on other courts to write down the results and give them to me. TK helped a lot today by snaring the results of 5 games I wouldn't otherwise have. Hopefully, I won't have to miss any games anymore with the new sheets and others helping. Thanks to Erik for emailing me the pic.

Anyway, though I missed many games, I still recorded 17 of them... Here are today's results...




One of my wins came in the game the was the birth of the phrase "To Steve-Out". I'm not 100% sure (I don't remember the first basket or two), but I think that Steve scored all 21 points in the win for our team. I've seen this done before by Anthony - who does it by dominating physically and going to the hoop, but this is one of the few times I've ever seen one guy, who's mainly a shooter, win a game by scoring all the teams points. Nice going.



Below is the biggest chart so far, it is the wins and losses broken down by month, (I started collecting the data near the end of September)... A couple of extreme examples of disparity: Rob (pony tail) only won 24% of his games in October, but has won 55% of all his games in Nov. The reverse has happened to Jack who won 55% in October but has managed to win only 37% so far in November. This is why I talk about the data only being an accurate predictor of everyone's place in the super looooong run. Any given month or two, anything can happen.



Finally today, here are the records for tandems. Again, for those that are new to the blog, tandems are combos of two players and their records when playing on the same team regardless of who else is on the team or who the opponent is. Of course, there are a zillion tandems, so this is just those that have played at least 10 games with each other...

Wednesday to forget

My record today (1-7) looks like the Thunder/Wizards/Clippers. Oh well. Actually, the last game I was in I played with Nate, Alvin and Rob (big) - usually a recipe for victory. But Brandon was on the other team and he poured in threes like he was playing pop-a-shot at the local sports bar. (Ironic since he probably isn't old enough to drink in a sports bar). Anyway, he killed my team with Alvin and Nate twice in a row - who invited him anyway?


In other news, there were 20 of us and Wednesday turns out to be the most consistently attended day of the week, here's the data...








Here are the records for today, I think I missed one game...





Here is the cumulative data...





By the way, if you don't know if you are Mike #2 or James #2 or Zach #2, etc... just write me or stop me at hoops and I can let you know which one you are.


Finally, here is the game winning shot (GWS) data through today. It is sorted by total number of game winners regardless of how many games you've been in (that's why I'm relatively high, the other guys near the top haven't played nearly as many games with GWS in them as I have). But I'll sort it how I want to, 'cause it's MY blog. If you're not sure how to read this chart, check the earlier blog entry about GWS, it explains the chart in detail.

The Jib Bruise

While we all get a variety of nagging injuries: sprained ankles, crooked fingers, floor burn, etc. My favorite by far is the Jib Bruise. I've always had love handles, even when I was young and in my best shape - I can thank my unfortunate genetics for that. Anywho, because I have the glorious love handles, one consequence is that when guys go up for a rebound or shot against me, sometimes when they come down, if they collide against me or come down against my side, they might compress my love handle into the top of my hip bone. Thus creating an awesomely boysenberry colored little chub of skin I like to call the Jib Bruise. They don't hurt much and you don't see them unless you are looking, but when you do catch a glimpse, you are reminded that it is because you are shaped much more like an accountant than a basketball player - and don't we all wish for that?

The Dreaded 15 / National Brandon Day

Not a lot of games today as we had the dreaded 15 guys in attendence for much of the day.

There were two new guys today (not new to hoops, just to my data) and lo and behold they were both named Brandon. Not only that, but I was also told that Tony #2 happens to be Brandon Roy's dad. So, it's all Brandons all the time today. By the way, there have now been 82 guys, 14 of which have come at least half the time.

Unfortunately the day ended in the middle of the last game when Matt tried to make his ankle look like a pretzel. Games not finished are not in the data, but, Hey! We were winning.

Here are everyone's cumulative stats...



Here are the stats for guys with 30+ games...




Here's today's new stat - which took some spreadsheet wizardry. These are your personal longest winning and losing streaks. For instance, my maximum number of wins in a row is 5, and unfortunately, my max number of consecutive losses is 9. These are everyone's numbers. Only James with 13 and Shad with 10 have at one time won at least 10 games in a row. Keep in mind, these are not your current streaks, they are your longest ever.

A Sea of Players & What the frak's with the gloves?

On the right is a picture of noon hoops today. It was a sea of dudes. 28 in all, and even though I've been doing this now for 7 weeks, just today there were 7 new players. Crazy. Lots of games recorded and several missed. It was a record 19 games that I got the results from and yet I missed the results of at least 4 games, almost all from the far court. Those guys have several results absent from their stats today. Oh well, I guess I need more agents writing down results on days like these. As I've written before, any given result is random and the very nature of wins and losses is that half the guys are happy I missed those games and half the guys are bummed.

Also, in the last week several guys have asked me what the hell is up with the gloves I wear. If I haven't told you before and you didn't read the earlier blog entry, it's because my hands are all cracked and cut. No matter what goo I put on them, the combination of hoops, home stuff and winter make them crack like the "night of 1000 paper cuts". If I didn't have the gloves I'd be bleeding all over the ball - nobody wants that. The gloves are a little sticky, so they help my dribbling some, but hurt my shooting a little - and it wasn't that great to start with.

By the way, great NBA games on Friday night, my TIVOs will be getting a workout from NBA League Pass as I'm taping 5 games, sweet. One game I'm not taping is Indiana vs Philly (who would tape that?) but I had it on while I was compiling today's stats and the Pacers went up 22-2 and then 38-13 in the 1st quarter. Nice.

Here are today's stats (what I got)...

Here are everybody's cumulative stats...

And here is my self indulgent stat of the day. This is everyone's record against me. It doesn't matter who else was on my team or who else was on yours, only that you and I were opponents in the game. So, in other words, I've faced a team with James on it 10 times and he is 9-1 against me (that makes me 1-9 against him). Keep in mind that my overall winning % is 43%. That means that the average opponent I face has won 57% of the time (so if your winning % against me is 57%, you've done typical against me and my teams). That's why 57% is about the middle of the chart. Obviously this doesn't mean anything about who was covering whom, just that we were on opposite teams. For instance Jack is 11-15 against me (that makes me 15-11 against him), but if I had to cover him all those times, I'm guessing his teams would have won more often. This is just guys I've played at least 10 games against.

By the way, my wife's guacamole is better than yours.

Arrive early to win (or... it's just too damn cold for skins)

Here's another arbitrary stat...

The first game played each day is one that matters more than the others because the winners stay on. In the first game played during all the days I've recorded, the first four players signed up (the shirts) are 16-4. So, if you want to stay on the court after the first game, arrive early to be one of the first four. Why??? Who knows? Maybe all the studs arrive early. Maybe the second team didn't have enough time to warm-up. Maybe since the second team is always skins, they are just too damn cold during the first game. Anywho, see you there at 11:30 tomorrow.

A typical Wednesday

21 Players and 14 games on two courts. It's been a while now since we didn't have enough for two courts. Today, Steve went 3-1 and hit the Game Winning Shot (GWS) in all 3 games.

More dudes showed up today who haven't come since I started keeping track. There have now been 73 different players in the 6 weeks - keeping all their names straight is taxing for a geezer like myself. 28 of the guys have come exactly once.

Here are the W/L records for guys with at least 20 games played...

I keep W/L records for every given set of two players and three players who play together at any time. I don't post those stats a lot because since there are so many combinations, the stats aren't very substantial yet. However I will tell you one arbitrary stat, the trio of Kurt, Shad and Marvena are 8-0 when playing together regardless of who the fourth man in the fire was in those games.

Missed a couple of game results today, but here's the chart of the ones I got...

NBA note - wasn't impressed at all with O.J. Mayo at USC, but holy crap does he have some game. Have seen him play a couple of times this year already (Grizzlies) and the man can hoop. My apologies to him for doubting him. He's better in the NBA than he was in the PAC 10 - go figure.

Veteran's Day, The Casino Effect & GWS

Today was a weird day. It was a record for attendence on a Monday - I'm sure because it was a holiday for some. And yet despite the fact that it was a record number for a Monday (22), it didn't include 3 of the 4 most frequent players: Jack, Alvin & Erik.

The other thing that was weird was what I'll attribute to the "Casino Effect". Maybe lots of guys went to the opening of the Snoqualmie Casino or something (I didn't), but today was the most ragged, half-assed, lazy, no-defense games I ever saw. The matador defense was the most often used today as guys happily let other guys waltz by them for a lay-up after lay-up. It was really weird how prevelent it was - so I'll just chalk it up to everyone being tired from playing poker and blackjack all weekend and pray it gets better by Wednesday.

Here are the cumulative W/L stats...

Next is a chart with the latest stat, Game Winning Shots. Now stick with me a moment... this is an interesting stats but also a flawed one. For instance, while I keep GWS, I don't keep track of how many someone heaved up and missed before they hit the game winner. Also, you have to win the game to be able to have hit the GWS, so I have to compare the GWS to your games AND your wins. So here is the chart... The first column is your actual Game Winning Shots made. The next is the number of games you've played in where I recorded who hit the GWS (needed for % purposes as so far I have only recorded the GWS in 53 games). Next is the % of games where you hit the GWS (regardless of if you won or lost). Next is the number of times your team won where I recorded the GWS, and finally, the % of times you hit the GWS when your team won.

So, for instance, Sean has hit 2 GWS out of 3 games he has played in where I recorded the GWS. BUT, he only won two of those three games, so he has hit the GWS in 100% of the games his team won and 67% of all games he has played. If you go down and look at Tony, he has only hit the GWS 3 times in 17 games (18%) BUT, only 5 of those 17 were wins, so he hit the GWS in 3 of his 5 wins (60%). There you go, have fun reading it...

Underdogs - supplemental

Since I keep everyone's winning %, you could argue that as they become more accurate over time as a reflection of everyone's skills, you could then add any teams individual winning percentages together and you'd have an idea of how good that team should be. Do that for both teams in a game, and you have a favorite and an underdog. Call it Power Rankings for noon hoops. For this purpose, I only use your winning percentage if you have played more than 20 games, if you have not, I use 50% for you to normalize the percentages of guys who hardly play.

Thus, the highest rated team so far of all 200 games we have played was 255 (the sum of their 4 winning percentages - or an average of almost 64%). That team was Alvin, James, Jason and Sean. There was also a 253 composed of BK, James, Pride and Steve. For clarity, 200% would be exactly average (4 guys with 50% winning percentages).

I won't rat out the lowest rated team, but I compared all the spreads in ratings for all games and came up with the theoretical biggest upsets.

At 30-6, James has an 83% winning percentage, so while he wins almost always, as you can imgaine, when he loses it's usually an upset, he's been on the losing end of 2 of the 3 biggest % differential upsets ever.

In one game, James, Joey, Steve and Sean had an 82% team rating better (242% to 160% sum for each team) than Erik, Rob (big), Rob (pony tail) and Erik and they lost.

In another game, the favorites Jack, James, Luke and Pride lost to Alvin, Bob, Erik and Kurt despite their rating of 57% points higher as a team (247%-190%).

Lastly, Erik, Jon, Keith and Rob (pony tail) beat Alvin, Marvena, Nate and Steve despite being out Power Rated 231% to 172%.

In all, favorites of at least 40 percentage points have a record of 41-9.

How's that for some crap you didn't need to know?

Typical Friday, 17 players

17 players today. Had 16 for a while which locked us in to playing the same matchups 3 times in a row. I'm going to see Tony scooping in a lay-up in my nightmares.

Here are the stats for today. Clearly James benefitted from having me on his team (Ha!)



These are the cumulatives for just the guys with 20 games played - sorted by winning %. James is still far in the lead... You can begin to see some names heading where they belong. There are now exactly 200 games in my database. I've been in 119 of them.

Alvin hasn't come recently, so he's dropped a little bit down the list of how often guys come. Here is the count of how many times each person has come to hoops...

Finally, the tandems. These are the two person tandems and their records regardless of who else they played with. Only tandems with 10 games played together are on this list. Considering there have been 63 different players so far, the combinations are legion. So far 490 different two player tandems have played together.

Wed the 5th - A visitor

So my friend Kevin from Long Beach, CA was here today. Hadn't picked up a ball in 10 years. Nice boards by him though we got beat a lot today. That's not very nice treatment for a far away visitor. Because of his visit, my posting is late and short.

I missed one or two games from Wednesday's action but there were 14 games in all recorded. Joey, Steve and James all went 5-1. Here are the cumulative win - loss records...

TK came back off injured reserve and then promptly defected to the Chinese National team. See him in a couple of weeks.

On the bright side, my wife said my ankle no longer looks like an eggplant, now it looks like a fish.

It's Fri morning and time to get ready for hoops. Sweet.

Decent turn out for a Monday & a quasi-disputed game

Wound up with 19 guys today which is the most yet for a Monday. There were 15 games in all. While Jason topped today's W/L, it was a good day to be named Zach. I also understand there was a disputed game outcome. I didn't see it, but from what I found out, the game ended at 21 with a disagreement over whether the ball was live/everyone was playing. The solution was to go to 31 and the other team won (not the team that got to 21 first). I appreciate the creative solution, however I'm pretty sure the team that ultimately lost wasn't too happy about it. Here are today's stats...

Nineteen players is the most we have had on a Monday, maybe the wintery weather will bring more guys to the gym. Here are the number of players for each day since I started tracking...

Here are everyone's cumulative W/L. There are now 175 games in the books. Also, I was able to add the last game from last Friday after I left. I had recorded the players but didn't know who won. Today I found out which team won, so that got added to the data also. Here's everyone...

22-0 & Three courts

It was a newsworthy day at hoops. There were three courts going for only the 3rd time I can remember at noon hoops in the past 4 years. Sweet. That did make it a little hard for me to record all the results (despite my mind of steel), so I think I missed two or three games. However, I did get the results on a record 19 games.

In the first game of the day, my team lost 22-0. And it wasn't that close. BK, Pride, James and Ray Ray were on the winning team. There's no reason to drag my teammates names into it, but it was hideous. The bummer was that I lost a lot of money on the game in Vegas, because I had my team and I was getting 21 points.

Pride and James both went 8-1 yesterday and Zach Jr went 4-0. In all, exactly 24 guys showed up - good thing they were all there at the same time so we could get the three courts going.


Here are all the cumulative results...






Here are the ranked results for guys with 20+ games. James winning % probably surprises no one.







Finally, here is the chart of what days guys show up on. There have been 5 of each Mon, Wed and Fri, and now you can see some patterns for guys. This way, if you care, you can know which guys might show/not show on any give day of the week. I put the guys with the biggest differential at the top of the list. For instance, Joey comes almost every Wed and Fri, but not yet once on Monday. On the other hand, Keith loves Mondays, but that's it. Here you go....




By the way, there is now an "Injured Reserve" list in the right column for guys who are hurt. Let me know if you are out for a while and I'll pop you on it.