Power Ratings I

If you just want to see the ratings, jump to the bottom of this post...

So the premise of the winning % is that you can compare them in the long run if it's random and everyone plays with and against everyone else an equal number of times.

They don't.

Buddies like to play together, guys don't play on bad teams, good teams defer their turn to stick together...  And most importantly, I don't have NEARLY enough data yet for there to be true randomness and fairness in the games.  Even if everyone played randomly, there are just too many players for things to work out well statistically until hundreds of games have been played for everyone.

But, like the BCS and RPI ratings, I can try to figure out how well you are performing based on how good the guys you get to play with AND against have been.

For example, if I always played with Ant, Marc & Mike, I'd probably win 100% of the time, but that doesn't mean that independently my winning % should be 100.  On the other hand if I always played with the worst three players AGAINST Ant, Marc & Mike, I'd never win.  That doesn't mean much about me either.  But, if I factor in who I've played with & against, I should be able to predict better how often I SHOULD have won and then compare that to how often I ACTUALLY won.

So, in analyzing this, the most important number to know is that the Favorite team wins 80% of the time.  That's the average of ALL Favs vs ALL Underdogs for all the games I've kept record of (a couple of years ago and now).  So if somehow, you were ALWAYS on the favorite team (your teammates winning % was greater than your opponents winning %) you should win 80% of your games if you are an average player.

Here's the first chart...  It shows players with more than 20 games.

Here's how to read it.  Alvin is 24-1 when his teammates win % are better than his opponents win % (favorite).  And he is 9-20 when his teammates are worse than his opponents.  And he's 33-21 Overall.  So, he wins 96% when he's the favorite (average is 80%) and 31% as an underdog (average is 20%) - so you can see if much better than average.  For the purpose of this chart, whether your team is a Fav or Underdog only includes your teammates and opponents %, NOT your own - because I'm analyzing how you fare compared to the average.

Some big things stick out here that you'll see on the power rating chart further down.  Tony has had the misfortune of only playing on teams that were the favorite (not including him) 24.4% of the time.  So, in 3/4 of the games Tony has played, his opponents were stronger players than his teammates.  That's part of the reason why he is only 15-26.  Same for Keith.  Keith is only 9-24, BUT he has only had teammates stronger than opponents 27.3% of the time.

On the other end of the scale is Mike Dahm.  Incredibly, in ALL 21 games he has played, his teammates were stronger than his opponents (and remember, I don't include his own rating in that, just the avg of his teammates win% VS. his opponents win%).  That's right, every single game Mike has played, his teammates were stronger players than his opponents.  So, if he were exactly average, he should have won 80% of the time.  Of course, he's better than average and has actually won 95% of the time.

Here's the chart of just games played when your teammates were stronger than your opponents (favorites)... Players with at least 15 total games played.

So Marc and Kenny have never lost with teammates that were favored.  Think about it, if you have 3 guys better on average than the other teams guys and then throw Marc on the pile, their gonna probably always win.

Here's the same chart for just the games when your teammates were underdogs to the other team... Players with at least 15 total games played.

As you can see, Ant is the only player who has a winning record with teammates weaker than the opponent.  Marc is the only other player who has managed 50%.  The average is 20%.  A few guys have not yet won at all as underdogs.

Finally, here are the POWER RATINGS!

The columns after your name are: Games played, % of games your teammates were the favorites, number of games you should have won (80% of the times your were favored, 20% of the times you were underdogs), games you ACTUALLY won, ACTUAL Win % and Power Rating - your actual wins divided by the number you should have won...  Let the arguing begin... Player with 20 games or more played.

Again, I'd like to reiterate this is all VERY EARLY (like the BCS after 3 games).  And all in fun.  But you can see that the better players are at the top, and you can see how much it affects everyone who they have played with and against.