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Thursday, January 27, 2011

Improved Power Ratings Coming

After Friday's games, I'm gonna have updated Power Rankings.  The previous Power Rankings took into account if your teammates were better/worse than your opponents and then compared your W/L to your anticipated W/L based on if your mates vs opponents were Favs or Underdogs (Favs consistently win 80% of the time).

Now, I've made them MUCH smarter.  Now I take into account BY HOW MUCH your mates vs opponents were favs or underdogs, because losing as an 80% underdog is much more understandable and tolerable than losing as 5% underdog, and so on.  Essentially, I've now created a Strength of Schedule stat to augment your winning % and produce the new Power Ranking.

Just to illustrate the point, if I won half of my games with teammates that all sucked while playing great opponents, that would mean I'm much better and different than if I won half my games playing with great teammates against crappy opponents.  So, the new Rankings will function like the old ones except that instead of just adjusting your win% by the number of times your teammates were favs/underdogs, it will be adjusted by HOW MUCH they were favs/underdogs by.

Surprisingly, to add insult to injury, Anthony has had the 2nd easiest schedule of anyone who has played a bunch (and, yes, that DOES NOT include his own win%, just his teammates and opponents).  To some extent it's possible that it's at least somewhat affected by the fact that all of Ant, Mike, Marc and Kenny tend to arrive very early which increases the propensity of them being on the same team.  So, Strength of Schedule counts against his PR somewhat (good thing he wins so many damn games to compensate).

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