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Friday, January 21, 2011

Not a nice "Welcome Back" for Rob

Rob came back to hoops today with his mended broken hand.  Unfortunately, his keys disappeared, so if you find a set, please let him or me know (I can forward an email to him).  Keys aside, it was nice to see him back playing.

Now to today's games... Here's a picture of the ocean....


You won't find my ball in there, because I couldn't throw the ball in the ocean (from the beach) to save my life today.  At least I have my striking good looks.

Here are today's wins & losses...


Not surprisingly, the players who won a lot had very high teammate winning % and the guys who didn't had the opposite.  As a matter of fact, if you look at the average opponent team's win %, it pretty much lines up exactly with who won and who lost.  Remember, a team of 200% is exactly average because it has 4 guys who have historically won 50% of their games.

Saw several more incidents of guys not wanting to play with bad teams and players on great teams deferring their turn to play together more today.  Obviously that fucks the data some, so shortly I'm gonna have to start doing Power Ratings like I used.  This is like the BCS/RPI ratings where I check your teammates & opponents historically, and calculate what % of games you SHOULD win.  Then, I compare that to your actual winning % and come up with a power ranking.  If you care about the math, I'll explain it when I post it.

A quick "for instance"... poor Trent today went 1-6.  Bad, yes.  BUT, his average teammate was only 46.8%.  So, IF he were an exactly average player, his team would be 46.8*3+50 for a total of 190.4%.  Worse for him, the average team he faced today was 234%.  Zoiks.  That means ON AVERAGE today, his teams were -44% underdogs.  I know historically that teams that are -44% dogs lose 84% of the time.  So, while he was 1-6 (14%), in reality, it would only be expected if he were average to win only 16% of his games today.  Thus, the 1-6 was not a bad performance at all.  Totally what would be expected for those teammates and opponents.


Here are the cumulative stats for guys with at least 15 games played...

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