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Saturday, November 8, 2008

Underdogs - supplemental



Since I keep everyone's winning %, you could argue that as they become more accurate over time as a reflection of everyone's skills, you could then add any teams individual winning percentages together and you'd have an idea of how good that team should be. Do that for both teams in a game, and you have a favorite and an underdog. Call it Power Rankings for noon hoops. For this purpose, I only use your winning percentage if you have played more than 20 games, if you have not, I use 50% for you to normalize the percentages of guys who hardly play.

Thus, the highest rated team so far of all 200 games we have played was 255 (the sum of their 4 winning percentages - or an average of almost 64%). That team was Alvin, James, Jason and Sean. There was also a 253 composed of BK, James, Pride and Steve. For clarity, 200% would be exactly average (4 guys with 50% winning percentages).

I won't rat out the lowest rated team, but I compared all the spreads in ratings for all games and came up with the theoretical biggest upsets.

At 30-6, James has an 83% winning percentage, so while he wins almost always, as you can imgaine, when he loses it's usually an upset, he's been on the losing end of 2 of the 3 biggest % differential upsets ever.

In one game, James, Joey, Steve and Sean had an 82% team rating better (242% to 160% sum for each team) than Erik, Rob (big), Rob (pony tail) and Erik and they lost.

In another game, the favorites Jack, James, Luke and Pride lost to Alvin, Bob, Erik and Kurt despite their rating of 57% points higher as a team (247%-190%).

Lastly, Erik, Jon, Keith and Rob (pony tail) beat Alvin, Marvena, Nate and Steve despite being out Power Rated 231% to 172%.

In all, favorites of at least 40 percentage points have a record of 41-9.

How's that for some crap you didn't need to know?

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