Today the favorites were 10-0 vs the underdogs. I determine the favs and underdogs by adding the winning % of the 4 players on each team. If you have less than 20 games played, I use 50% for you so you don't corrupt the stats.
So, for instance, in the first game it was Bob (47%), Luke (62), Steve (60) and Zach (42) for a total of 212 vs Gary (41), Jack (48), Rob (pony tail) (42) and Sean #2 (new, so 50) for a total of 181. That 31% diff is pretty big in my database. Favs that have at least a 40% advantage are historically 51-8. Favs that have a 30-40% advantage are 27-6. Sure enough, we won.
Here's the chart for favorites and their records based on how big the winning % diff was between the two teams... Overall, you can see that the favs win 67% of the time.
Of course, not all the data is "clean" or random. There are several guys who affect their winning % by what they do at hoops to help get on winning teams. Some of the things guys do are...
1. Sign up for team 2 when team 1 isn't full 'cause they don't like team 1's chances.
2. Sit out a game rather than shoot for it when they think the team they'd join is weak.
3. Bring a friend who is talented and play with them all day.
4. Try to replace a player who is leaving with the best guy sitting as opposed to having the remaining dudes shoot for it.
There are a few guys who do this stuff a bunch - though most guys don't and therefore their teammates are truly random. Clearly, the guys who do help their chances of winning, but overall, it's still pretty minor.
Here are today's stats...
And here are the cumulative stats for everyone with more than 40 games played. I've now got data on 290 games...
Rob (pony tail) jackknifed his ankle today, hope it's feeling better soon.
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