Favorites & Underdogs

So if you've read my posts, you know that my basic premise is that in the LONG RUN (I mean hundreds of games), everyone's rank in their winning % will be generally representative of where their skill/talent ranks.

You'd need hundreds of games for everyone to play with and against everyone else many times for it to be highly reliable.  Even so, the data is also corrupted by certain guys who only want to play with their friends and defer games they could play when the team is bad.  The theory is that to compare everyone, you'd have to be playing randomly all the time.  But, that being said, there is a LOT of mixture and randomness and you can tell by looking at the results that IN GENERAL the guys you think are better tend to be at the top of the charts and visa versa.  This is even more true on the stats I did two years ago that you can look up in the old posts because I had tons more data.

Now then, 50% winning percentage is (of course) average.  But just how good is someone who wins 60% of the time in the long run or 70%?

Here's some proof.  Since there are 4 guys on a team, if you add up there historic win %, then a perfectly average team would be 200% (4 X 50%).  So, if you had three average guys and one guy who wins 60% of the time, your team would total 210%.  If you have all 4 of your guys with 60% winning %, then your team would total 240%.

So, how often does a team that adds to 240% beat a team that adds to 200%?   Here's the chart... this data is a compilation of last time I did the blog and the current stats...

So, in other words, if one team adds up to 40% more than the other team, they win 87% of the time.

Here's an example...  BK wins 54% of the time.  Four BKs would sum to 216%.  I win 43% of the time.  Four Zachs add to 172%.  So four BKs are 44% greater than four Zachs. The chart says that a favorite of 44% wins 87% of the time.  In other words, in this case, the Zachs are always likely to lose.

The record for the highest sum of win % ever (in other words, the best statistical team) just happened on Monday.  Anthony, Kenny, Marc & Mike added up to 284%.  Needless to say, they won their games.

The biggest upset of the last month (statistically speaking) was Angie, Erik, Josh & Marvena (190%) beating Anthony, Dave, Heath & Ray (242%) so the diff was 52%.  If you look at the chart, 52% underdogs only win 13% of the time.

In total, using this method where I add the four winning % together, in all the games I recorded two years ago and now since I restarted, the favorites win 69% of the time.

Missing Games

Missed the stats on several games today while I was playing.  Now that more guys read the blog, more are concerned that I got their results.  Well, actually, HALF are concerned that I got their results - the half that won.  The ones who lost are happy my attention was elsewhere.

Keep in mind that what I miss is totally random, so your winning % during those games will be roughly equal to the games I record in the long run.  But, if you do want to help make sure I get the results, you simply need to write down the 4 guys on each team and let me know which team won.  I generally have a notepad and a pen you can use around my bag...


Anywho, here are today's results that I got...

And here are the cumulative tots for those who have played at least 15 games...

Today's Box Score

I missed the first game today, so while I sat I kept the box score (shooting only).

Erik was clearly the MVP.

You'll see that Team 2 won not just because of Erik's shooting, but they also got WAY more shots off due to Brad's rebounding.  I didn't keep rebounding stats, so you'll just have to trust me.  He missed some put-backs, but did a great impression of Moses Malone and kept at it until he got the right result.

Here it is... (remember you can click on it to make it larger)

 Will be posting today's Wins and Losses a little later.

The new NBA Slaughter Rule

For those of you who missed it, there was an emergency meeting of the NBA Board of Govrenors last night to install a new Slaughter Rule.  The reason was the LAL beatdown of Cleveland.  The score midway through the third quarter was 70-27.  That's not a typo, 70-27 midway thru the 3rd.  The end of the period saw the score balloon to 92-41.  Final was 112-57.  Cleveland scored exactly 1 more point than HALF of LAL and lost by 55 points.

The new Slaughter Rule reads (I'm quoting here):  "When a game gets completely out of hand and one team is completely ripping the ass off of another, erupting in a volcanic beatdown, or using the other team's scrotums as fan give-a-ways, the game shall be stopped and the losing team contracted.  This rule will also be invoked every time any team plays Cleveland, Sacramento or New Jersey"

A Statue of Trent

Needed some more pics on the blog, so started snapping some for future use.  Below is a pic of a statue of Trent.  I tried taking a picture of the actual Trent, but apparently he is too fast for a camera to capture him.  Thus, I had to wait for a statue to be built and then I snapped this pic...

It's very lifelike.

Monday - More New Faces

Extreme talent and a few new faces today.

I'll have more analysis later - teammate percentages, favorites vs underdogs, attendance, GWS, etc...

But for now, I wanted to get the Wins and Losses out, so here they are for today...

 

The average teammate column is the average cumulative winning % of all your teammates that you played with today.  If you look at the bottom, the average of everyone for today was 56.7%.  That's huge.  In fact, I'll have to check back but that may be the highest average winning % of all the guys in attendance for any one day.  Keep in mind that for guys with less than 20 games played, I simply count them as 50%.  I'll write more about team winning percentages and how likely it is that four 60% winners would beat four 50% winners in a later post.  If you look at the names on today's list, you'll see lots of guys who win a lot.

Here are the cumulative stats...

By the way, Kenny, Erik and I all have 33 wins to lead the stats.  Of course, Kenny has only 15 losses to my 40, thus making him a total prickwad.

Friday is anomaly day

21 guys showed up to hoops on Friday, although there were only 8 at 12:05 - slow for a Friday.  I've recorded stats for 8 sessions since I restarted the blog and we are already at 60 different players.  Unfortunately today was the first time I didn't get one of the player's names.  He came late and I didn't play in any of his games, thus the "unk" on the player list.

Here are today's stats...

The next chart is the cumulative stats, but ONLY for players with at least 15 games played since I began tracking things again in December...

 

As a matter of fact, if you add up just the players who have played at least 20 games, they are 248-199.  A stat that seems to intimate that maybe (as a group/on average) the guys who are more talented play more often - and maybe the less talented guys (on average) are only occasional players.  There are clearly exceptions: for example I play all the time and am NOT one of the more talented guys and Brandon plays only spottily and is very talented.

Lastly, here is the Game Winning Shot chart.  Talk about anomalies, before today, I had gone 7 sessions without a single GWS - today I hit 4.

If you weren't there Friday, this is what you missed....

Except there were 7 other guys on the court...

 

Stats for Friday coming soon...

Hoops FolkLore: Why Erik is spelled with a "k"

This week's craziest stat is not entirely scientific, just observed over a long time.  For some strange reason, Erik has more kicks of the ball while playing defense than everyone else in the gym combined.

Maybe he is some sort of Hockey goalie savant, (notice I didn't say "Soccer" because we live in America) or maybe his brain is wired in such a way so that he uses his legs and feet when most human beings would be reaching with their arms and legs.  Whatever the reason, if you pay attention for a few sessions, you'll find it to be true.  I've discussed it with him and he is definitely aware.

So, it makes sense now that you know that "Erik" is really an acronym that stands for Every Reflex Is Kick.

You probably saw this...

Issaquah Noon Hoops Fantasy Basketball is Coming

Devising easy draft/point scheme now.

Wednesday's Stats

Back to recording wins and losses after a couple day hiatus.  Missed a couple of games today on the other court while I was playing, but recorded the results on 11 games.

Here are the wins & losses...

Here's the cumulative stats with the addition of your own personal longest winning and losing streaks...

Obviously I don't post every chart every day, but I thought I'd mention that Anthony had 6 GWS today. 

NBA Rules - Anthony was right

There is no specific rule in the NBA rulebook at NBA.com dealing with a player who goes out-of-bounds, was the last guy to touch the ball, then comes back in bounds and is the next guy to touch it. Anthony argued with a few guys today insisting this was legal. While there is no rule pertaining to it exactly, there is a section on NBA.com called "Ask Bernie". Bernie Fryer is in charge of all the refs for the NBA and he interprets the rules. The following is a Q & A from the "Ask Bernie" section at NBA.com

Ques -- A person grabs a rebound and lands in bounds but because of this his momentum is causing him to fall out of bounds. Before he steps out he drops the ball in bounds. He then goes out of bounds, comes back in and gets both feet in bounds before he grabs the ball again. Is this legal or would the ball go to the other team? -Jeff

Ans from Bernie -- This is a legal play, as long as he re-establishes himself inbounds with both feet legally touching the playing court before touching the ball. If he does not reestablish himself inbounds, then he may not legally be the first one to touch the ball.

As long as I'm on rules, here's the one I hate most at the community center... Guys who catch their own airballs. That's traveling in the NBA. And everywhere I've ever seen, but at the ICC, we play that if it was a legitimate shot, you can grab your own airball even if it doesn't touch anyone or anything else. I am NOT an expert on High School ball, apparently some guys say this is how it is in High School -- but who wouldn't want to play NBA rules? Besides, when I was in High School, we still had to get the ladder out and get the ball out of the peach basket when someone scored. Anyway, for those of you in doubt, here's another excerpt from "Ask Bernie"...

Ques -- If player A1 shot an airball and the same player A1 retrieves the ball without other players touching the ball first, is this considered a traveling violation? The argument is that even though the player shot an airball, it is still a shot attempt. -Bobby

Ans From Bernie --Yes, this scenario would be a traveling violation. The ball must hit the backboard and/or rim, or an opponent before the shooting player can be the first to touch the missed shot. If the shooting player is the first to touch an airball, then it is a traveling violation.

Here's the last one we always argue about, kicking ... right from the rulebook (notice the word "intentional" in the rule)... By the way, punching the ball is the same violation as kicking.

Section V-Strike the Ball
a. A player shall not kick the ball or strike it with the fist.
b. Kicking the ball or striking it with any part of the leg is a violation when it is an intentional act. The ball accidentally striking the foot, the leg or fist is not a violation.

I'm sure we'll argue about it next time, but it was interesting to look it up.

And Baby Makes Nine - Urchin Alert!

Lots of stuff happening today.  I was back to keeping stats which I'll post later tonight or tomorrow.

Josh's kid was there today and she wasn't very cooperative when her dad was playing.  In fact, one of our games ended in a tie so that he could go dad-up.  In the end there was some crying and some purple dinosaur videos and we were able to finish up the last game to 31.

I actually picked her up and carried her to Josh which made me realize that that was probably the first time in at least 10 years that I picked a kid up.  The bummer was that when I brought her over half court, Alvin stole her from me and shot her from 35 feet.

Stats coming later...

New Year's Resolution Dudes

There were AT LEAST 26 at hoops here on Monday.  A couple of them were January "regulars".  Those guys that turn out after the new year because they made resolutions to get more exercise.  After Jan 15, they'll be gone - along with the extra college kids on break that were in attendance.

And that was 26 players without the likes of BK, Big Rob, Alvin, Cy or Dave.  Crazy.

Good players were everywhere you looked today as well as at least 3 guys named Jeff, 4 named Mike and 2 named Tony.

We played until 2:30.